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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 24

Seattle Seahawks 21 – Los Angeles Rams 26

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 5-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.53 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model