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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2019-10-06 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

BUF
32.1%
TEN
67.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN defense: -0.135 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • BUF offense: -0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): -0.097 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF defense: -0.149 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 18
–
TEN 23
Projected margin: TEN by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

BUF

Tyler Kroft TE Out Ankle
Corey Thompson LB Out Ankle
Ty Nsekhe T Questionable Ankle
Josh Allen QB Questionable Concussion
Patrick DiMarco RB Questionable Concussion
Dean Marlowe S Questionable Concussion
Robert Foster WR Questionable Groin
Taron Johnson CB Questionable Hamstring
Devin Singletary RB Questionable Hamstring

TEN

David Fluellen RB Out Knee
Kevin Pamphile G Out Knee
Cameron Wake LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 14
–
TEN 7

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 02:41 TD BUF (2:41) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 85-L.Smith for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – TEN 0
  • Q3 07:05 TD TEN (7:05) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – TEN 6
  • Q4 09:49 TD BUF (9:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 82-D.Williams for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – TEN 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (12:11) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to BUF 17, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:47) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (8:12) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to BUF 25, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 44%

    (4:55) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen up the middle to TEN 39 for 2 yards (58-H.Landry).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 71%

    (3:16) 17-J.Allen up the middle to TEN 30 for 1 yard (55-J.Brown).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 15 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 68%

    (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 39%

    (12:17) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to TEN 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-A.Humphries MUFFS catch, recovered by TEN-36-L.Sims at TEN 10. 36-L.Sims to TEN 10 for no gain (41-M.Alexander).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 17 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:11) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to BUF 49, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 18-A.Roberts pushed ob at TEN 44 for 7 yards (85-M.Pruitt). PENALTY on BUF-19-I.McKenzie, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 49.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 14 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 21%

    (6:47) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to TEN 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 18 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:29) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to BUF 40, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 15 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 91%

    (:49) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:19) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 64 yards to TEN 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 13 for 2 yards (58-M.Milano).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (11:49) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to BUF 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:04) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to TEN 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%

    (12:27) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-D.Johnson), Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 61%

    (6:35) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:35) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:21) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to BUF 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 29 for 2 yards (29-D.Cruikshank).