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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 75

Buffalo Bills 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:19) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 64 yards to TEN 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 13 for 2 yards (58-M.Milano).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model