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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 96

Tennessee Titans 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(5:29) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to BUF 40, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.94 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.88 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 96, worth -5.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 53, worth -2.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model