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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 41

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:55) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen up the middle to TEN 39 for 2 yards (58-H.Landry).

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.12 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model