4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 43

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:17) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to TEN 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-A.Humphries MUFFS catch, recovered by TEN-36-L.Sims at TEN 10. 36-L.Sims to TEN 10 for no gain (41-M.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.43 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model