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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(8:12) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to BUF 25, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 31, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model