4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 51

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:47) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to TEN 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.51 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.94 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model