Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 97

Tennessee Titans 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(10:11) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to BUF 49, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 18-A.Roberts pushed ob at TEN 44 for 7 yards (85-M.Pruitt). PENALTY on BUF-19-I.McKenzie, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 49.

The Three Options

GO -4.01 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.12 EP
72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 97, worth -6.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model