4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2019-10-06 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

ATL
48.3%
HOU
51.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • HOU offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

ATL 23
–
HOU 24
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

ATL

Kenjon Barner RB Out Knee
Matt Bosher P Out right Groin
Jamon Brown G Out Concussion
Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB Out Groin
Damontae Kazee S Questionable Illness

HOU

Greg Mancz C Out Concussion
Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Wrist
Lonnie Johnson CB Questionable Groin
Kenny Stills WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 32
–
HOU 53

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 38 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:10 TD ATL (9:10) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – HOU 0
  • Q1 04:13 TD HOU (4:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 15-W.Fuller for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – HOU 6
  • Q2 14:56 FG ATL (14:56) 3-M.Bryant 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-4-M.Wile. ATL 10 – HOU 7
  • Q2 12:14 TD HOU (12:14) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 15-W.Fuller for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – HOU 13
  • Q2 04:07 FG HOU (4:07) 7-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. ATL 10 – HOU 16
  • Q2 00:29 TD ATL (:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 24-D.Freeman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 16 – HOU 16
  • Q3 11:54 TD HOU (11:54) (Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 17 – HOU 22
  • Q3 07:40 FG HOU (7:40) 7-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. ATL 17 – HOU 26
  • Q3 02:01 TD HOU (2:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 87-D.Fells for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 17 – HOU 32
  • Q4 11:26 TD ATL (11:26) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to HOU 1 for no gain (39-T.Gipson). FUMBLES (39-T.Gipson), RECOVERED by HOU-24-J.Joseph at HOU 3. 24-J.Joseph to HOU 3 for no gain (24-D.Freeman). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 2-M.Ryan up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 23 – HOU 33
  • Q4 06:29 TD HOU (6:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 87-D.Fells for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 25 – HOU 39
  • Q4 03:31 TD ATL (3:31) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 18-C.Ridley for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. ATL 31 – HOU 40
  • Q4 02:00 TD HOU (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 15-W.Fuller for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 32 – HOU 46
  • Q4 00:39 TD HOU (:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Gipson at HOU 21. 39-T.Gipson for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 32 – HOU 53

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:40) 4-M.Wile punts 49 yards to HOU 30, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-D.Carter to HOU 37 for 7 yards (20-K.Sheffield).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 16 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:47) 9-B.Anger punts 35 yards to ATL 34, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-58-P.Kalambayi.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 93%

    (14:56) 3-M.Bryant 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-4-M.Wile.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:22) 4-M.Wile punts 60 yards to HOU 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-D.Carter to HOU 22 for 10 yards (80-L.Stocker). PENALTY on HOU-29-P.Gaines, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at HOU 16.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 75%

    (4:07) 7-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:18) 4-M.Wile punts 52 yards to HOU 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-D.Carter to HOU 34 for 11 yards (47-J.Harris; 87-J.Graham).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (7:40) 7-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:52) 4-M.Wile punts 50 yards to HOU 22, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-34-T.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 22.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (15:00) 4-M.Wile punts 40 yards to HOU 16, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-D.Carter MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-28-J.Miller at HOU 16.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

    (13:05) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu to HOU 1 for 7 yards (24-J.Joseph).