Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 69

Houston Texans 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(11:47) 9-B.Anger punts 35 yards to ATL 34, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-58-P.Kalambayi.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.07 EP
71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 69, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model