4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 32

Houston Texans 13 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 7-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.16 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 32, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 42, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model