Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Houston Texans 26

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 4-M.Wile punts 50 yards to HOU 22, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-34-T.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model