Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 4-M.Wile punts 60 yards to HOU 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-D.Carter to HOU 22 for 10 yards (80-L.Stocker). PENALTY on HOU-29-P.Gaines, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at HOU 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.74 EP
60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model