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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 8

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Houston Texans 33

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu to HOU 1 for 7 yards (24-J.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.54 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 8, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model