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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 56

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Houston Texans 33

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-M.Wile punts 40 yards to HOU 16, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-D.Carter MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-28-J.Miller at HOU 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.64 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP