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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 17

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 3-M.Bryant 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-4-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.92 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model