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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2019-09-29 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

TEN
42.9%
ATL
57.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Matt Ryan (ATL): +0.128 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL defense: +0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • TEN on 3 more days rest than ATL

Predicted Final Score

TEN 23
–
ATL 24
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

TEN

Kevin Pamphile G Out Knee

ATL

Kenjon Barner RB Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 24
–
ATL 10

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:09 TD TEN (12:09) 72-D.Quessenberry reported in as eligible. 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 11-A.Brown for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – ATL 0
  • Q1 08:34 TD ATL (8:34) 25-I.Smith left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – ATL 6
  • Q1 02:32 TD TEN (2:32) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – ATL 7
  • Q2 10:07 FG TEN (10:07) 7-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 17 – ATL 7
  • Q2 02:31 TD TEN (2:31) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 84-C.Davis for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 23 – ATL 7
  • Q3 11:41 FG ATL (11:41) 3-M.Bryant 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. TEN 24 – ATL 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 14 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:13) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to ATL 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-M.Sanu to ATL 17 for 2 yards (30-C.Milton).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:17) 5-M.Bosher punts 34 yards to TEN 45, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:37) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to ATL 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:23) 5-M.Bosher punts 50 yards to TEN 36, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 38 for 2 yards (87-J.Graham).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 84%

    (10:07) 7-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 60%

    (5:57) 24-D.Freeman left guard to TEN 40 for -1 yards (24-K.Vaccaro, 99-J.Casey).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 95%

    (:35) 3-M.Bryant 32 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 20 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 87%

    (11:41) 3-M.Bryant 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:48) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to ATL 5, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 79%

    (5:18) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TEN 39 for -9 yards (58-H.Landry).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 9 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 35%

    (2:55) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to ATL 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:56) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to TEN 43, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 97%

    (13:14) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard to ATL 12 for -2 yards (44-V.Beasley).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 82
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (12:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 12-M.Sanu to ATL 26 for 8 yards (37-A.Hooker).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 86%

    (7:16) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TEN 26 for -1 yards (55-J.Brown).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 35 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 69%

    (1:58) 6-B.Kern punts 33 yards to ATL 2, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN.