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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 88

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to TEN 43, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.05 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 88, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 46, worth -2.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model