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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 86

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(12:23) 5-M.Bosher punts 50 yards to TEN 36, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 38 for 2 yards (87-J.Graham).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.98 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 86, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 44, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model