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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 35

Tennessee Titans 24 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 6-B.Kern punts 33 yards to ATL 2, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.58 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.34 EP