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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 4 at the 25
Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tennessee Titans 24
What Actually Happened
(7:16) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TEN 26 for -1 yards (55-J.Brown).
The Three Options
GO
+1.29 EP
What Happened
-
43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.46 EP
- 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP
KICK
+1.38 EP
Model's Pick
- 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
- 14% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT
-0.28 EP
- Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
