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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 14 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to ATL 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.87 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 63, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model