4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 49

Tennessee Titans 24 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to ATL 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.01 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model