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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 30
Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tennessee Titans 24
What Actually Happened
(5:18) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TEN 39 for -9 yards (58-H.Landry).
The Three Options
GO
+2.52 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.17 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -0.82 EP
KICK
+1.67 EP
- 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
- 21% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT
+0.51 EP
- Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.51 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
