Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- PHI offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- QB edge to PHI: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.098 vs Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.123 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 4
PHI
GB
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:36 TD GB (10:36) 33-A.Jones right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – GB 6
- Q2 14:04 FG GB (14:04) 2-M.Crosby 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. PHI 0 – GB 10
- Q2 11:52 TD PHI (11:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 17-A.Jeffery for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on PHI-86-Z.Ertz, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at GB 6 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the offensive pass interference ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 17-A.Jeffery for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – GB 10
- Q2 08:28 FG GB (8:28) 2-M.Crosby 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. PHI 7 – GB 13
- Q2 02:48 TD PHI (2:48) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – GB 13
- Q2 01:02 TD PHI (1:02) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – GB 13
- Q2 00:14 TD GB (:14) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 81-G.Allison for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 21 – GB 19
- Q3 09:18 TD PHI (9:18) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 24-J.Howard for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 27 – GB 20
- Q3 03:21 TD GB (3:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-J.Graham for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 27 – GB 26
- Q4 14:17 TD PHI (14:17) 24-J.Howard up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 33 – GB 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 26%
(12:58) 1-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to GB 11, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-D.Shepherd to GB 11 for no gain (36-R.Ford).
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Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 47Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 37%
(7:08) 1-C.Johnston punts 37 yards to GB 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.
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Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%
(14:04) 2-M.Crosby 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
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Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 13Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 95%
(8:28) 2-M.Crosby 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
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Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(13:03) 6-J.Scott punts 31 yards to PHI 24, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.
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Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(7:58) 6-J.Scott punts 52 yards to PHI 16, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(6:56) 1-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to GB 28, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.
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Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%
(9:08) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 80-J.Graham.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 32%
(5:08) 1-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to GB 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.