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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 52

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 1-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to GB 11, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-D.Shepherd to GB 11 for no gain (36-R.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.91 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 52, worth -3.35 EP
KICK -2.09 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.29 EP
PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model