Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

(13:03) 6-J.Scott punts 31 yards to PHI 24, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.80 EP
62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -3.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model