4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 12

Green Bay Packers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(14:04) 2-M.Crosby 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.89 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 12, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model