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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 49

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 1-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to GB 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.85 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model