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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 13

Green Bay Packers 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 2-M.Crosby 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.14 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP