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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 47

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 1-C.Johnston punts 37 yards to GB 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.75 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP