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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Green Bay Packers
4th & 1 at the 1
Green Bay Packers 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 34
What Actually Happened
(9:08) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 80-J.Graham.
The Three Options
GO
+4.06 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
- 37% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 1, worth +0.94 EP
KICK
+1.89 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT
-0.03 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
