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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
Sunday 2019-09-29 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

JAX
32.1%
DEN
67.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.194 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • JAX on 3 more days rest than DEN

Predicted Final Score

JAX 17
–
DEN 22
Projected margin: DEN by 5 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

JAX

D.J. Alexander LB Out Hamstring
Josh Oliver TE Out Hamstring
Geoff Swaim TE Questionable Illness
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable Not Injury Related

DEN

Bryce Callahan CB Out Foot
Ja'Wuan James T Out Knee
Kareem Jackson CB Questionable Hamstring
Andy Janovich RB Questionable Pectoral
Josey Jewell LB Questionable Hamstring
Joseph Jones LB Questionable Triceps
Derek Wolfe DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 26
–
DEN 24

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:28 TD DEN (8:28) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 87-N.Fant for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – DEN 6
  • Q1 03:16 FG JAX (3:16) 4-J.Lambo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – DEN 7
  • Q2 13:43 TD DEN (13:43) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – DEN 13
  • Q2 04:20 FG DEN (4:20) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. Penalty on JAX-22-C.Davis, Defensive Offside, declined. JAX 3 – DEN 17
  • Q2 00:11 FG JAX (:11) 4-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 6 – DEN 17
  • Q3 04:46 TD JAX (4:46) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 23-R.Armstead for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Wolfe]. DEN-55-B.Chubb was injured during the play. JAX 12 – DEN 17
  • Q3 01:16 TD JAX (1:16) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 19 – DEN 17
  • Q4 02:58 FG JAX (2:58) 4-J.Lambo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 23 – DEN 17
  • Q4 01:38 TD DEN (1:38) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 23 – DEN 23
  • Q4 00:04 FG JAX (:04) 4-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 26 – DEN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 49%

    (11:14) 6-C.Wadman punts 38 yards to JAX 1, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-27-D.Harris.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 59 yards to DEN 37, Center-46-M.Orzech. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 47 for 10 yards (22-C.Davis).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (3:16) 4-J.Lambo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 11 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:21) 6-C.Wadman punts 49 yards to JAX 26, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at JAX 31 for 5 yards (27-D.Harris).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 17 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to DEN 31, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:07) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to DEN 9, Center-46-M.Orzech. 19-F.Brown MUFFS catch, recovered by DEN-36-T.Marshall at DEN 7. 36-T.Marshall to DEN 7 for no gain (58-A.Calitro).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:07) 6-C.Wadman punts 46 yards to JAX 45, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds. DEN-56-C.Nelson was injured during the play.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 17 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (8:51) 9-L.Cooke punts 26 yards to DEN 36, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 14 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%

    (4:20) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. Penalty on JAX-22-C.Davis, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:29) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to DEN 24, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 14 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 87%

    (:11) 4-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 94%

    (6:56) 77-C.Ogbuehi reported in as eligible. 27-L.Fournette right guard to DEN 13 for 2 yards (58-V.Miller).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (3:08) 6-C.Wadman punts 60 yards to JAX 14, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at JAX 24 for 10 yards (42-C.Kreiter). PENALTY on JAX-55-L.McCray, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at JAX 14.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:23) 6-C.Wadman punts 42 yards to JAX 16, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 41%

    (10:03) 6-C.Wadman punts 36 yards to JAX 6, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 93%

    (2:58) 4-J.Lambo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.