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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 15

Denver Broncos 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. Penalty on JAX-22-C.Davis, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 15, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model