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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 16

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 4-J.Lambo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.01 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 16, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model