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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 15

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 77-C.Ogbuehi reported in as eligible. 27-L.Fournette right guard to DEN 13 for 2 yards (58-V.Miller).

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.08 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model