Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 58

Denver Broncos 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

(:23) 6-C.Wadman punts 42 yards to JAX 16, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.76 EP
65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 58, worth -2.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model