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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Denver Broncos
4th & 8 at the 42
Denver Broncos 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20
What Actually Happened
(10:03) 6-C.Wadman punts 36 yards to JAX 6, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.18 EP
Model's Pick
-
33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.58 EP
- 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -2.05 EP
KICK
-0.82 EP
- 41% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
- 59% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT
-0.43 EP
What Happened
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
