Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 74

Denver Broncos 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 6-C.Wadman punts 60 yards to JAX 14, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at JAX 24 for 10 yards (42-C.Kreiter). PENALTY on JAX-55-L.McCray, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at JAX 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.49 EP
51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model