Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 91

Denver Broncos 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

(11:07) 6-C.Wadman punts 46 yards to JAX 45, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds. DEN-56-C.Nelson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +1.05 EP
61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 91, worth -5.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model