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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2019-09-29 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

CAR
44.7%
HOU
55.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CAR: Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.102 vs Kyle Allen (CAR) +0.447 EPA/dropback
  • HOU offense: +0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CAR 21
–
HOU 25
Projected margin: HOU by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

CAR

Cam Newton QB Out Foot
Trai Turner G Out Ankle
Donte Jackson CB Questionable Groin
Kawann Short DE Questionable Shoulder
Marquis Haynes LB Questionable Elbow
Bruce Irvin LB Questionable Hamstring

HOU

Seantrel Henderson T Out Illness
Charles Omenihu DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 16
–
HOU 10

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:28 FG CAR (2:28) 4-J.Slye 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 3 – HOU 0
  • Q2 08:03 FG HOU (8:03) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. CAR 3 – HOU 3
  • Q2 01:11 TD CAR (1:11) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – HOU 3
  • Q3 08:44 TD HOU (8:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – HOU 9
  • Q4 14:55 FG CAR (14:55) 4-J.Slye 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 13 – HOU 10
  • Q4 00:31 FG CAR (:31) 4-J.Slye 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 16 – HOU 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 79%

    (2:28) 4-J.Slye 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 71%

    (13:40) 7-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 28%

    (12:41) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to HOU 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 92%

    (8:03) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (:48) 9-B.Anger punts 58 yards to CAR 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (:16) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to HOU 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-D.Carter to HOU 35 for 18 yards (44-J.Jansen; 15-C.Hogan). PENALTY on CAR-98-M.Haynes, Illegal Motion, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 35.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:34) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to CAR 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-44-C.Gillaspia. PENALTY on HOU-37-J.Addae, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 6.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 52%

    (5:11) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to HOU 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-57-A.Smith.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:51) 9-B.Anger punts 59 yards to CAR 31, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-R.McCloud to CAR 41 for 10 yards (33-A.Moore; 46-J.Weeks). PENALTY on CAR-30-N.Jamerson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 31. Penalty on CAR-57-A.Smith, Illegal Blindside Block, declined.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 65%

    (14:55) 4-J.Slye 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:59) 9-B.Anger punts 71 yards to CAR 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-34-T.Jones.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 40%

    (7:10) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to HOU 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (:31) 4-J.Slye 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.