Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 90

Houston Texans 10 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 9-B.Anger punts 59 yards to CAR 31, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-R.McCloud to CAR 41 for 10 yards (33-A.Moore; 46-J.Weeks). PENALTY on CAR-30-N.Jamerson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 31. Penalty on CAR-57-A.Smith, Illegal Blindside Block, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.10 EP
62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model