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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 47

Carolina Panthers 13 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to HOU 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.88 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP