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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 19 at the 84

Houston Texans 10 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 9-B.Anger punts 71 yards to CAR 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-34-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 42, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model