Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 56

Houston Texans 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to CAR 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-44-C.Gillaspia. PENALTY on HOU-37-J.Addae, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 6.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.07 EP
58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model