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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 30

Carolina Panthers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 4-J.Slye 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.11 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model