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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 68

Houston Texans 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(:48) 9-B.Anger punts 58 yards to CAR 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model