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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 37

Carolina Panthers 10 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 4-J.Slye 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.55 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model