4th & Data
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Freddie Kitchens
Sunday 2019-09-22 · 20:20 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

LA
46.5%
CLE
53.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Baker Mayfield (CLE): +0.096 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

LA 22
–
CLE 23
Projected margin: CLE by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

LA

Tyler Higbee TE Out Chest
Austin Blythe G Questionable Ankle
Aaron Donald DT Questionable Back

CLE

Christian Kirksey LB Out Chest
Kendall Lamm T Out Knee
David Njoku TE Out Concussion
Damarious Randall S Out Concussion
Morgan Burnett S Questionable Quadricep
Christopher Hubbard T Questionable Foot
Sheldrick Redwine S Questionable Hamstring
Chris Smith DE Questionable Not Injury Related
Denzel Ward CB Questionable Hamstring
Greedy Williams CB Questionable Hamstring
Rashard Higgins WR Questionable Knee
Adarius Taylor LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 20
–
CLE 13

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:10 FG LA (4:10) 4-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – CLE 0
  • Q2 11:44 FG CLE (11:44) 4-A.Seibert 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. LA 3 – CLE 3
  • Q2 00:04 FG CLE (:04) 4-A.Seibert 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. LA 3 – CLE 6
  • Q3 10:44 TD LA (10:44) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-C.Kupp for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – CLE 6
  • Q3 04:40 TD CLE (4:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-D.Harris for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 10 – CLE 12
  • Q4 12:51 TD LA (12:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-C.Kupp for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – CLE 13
  • Q4 06:40 FG LA (6:40) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 20 – CLE 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 18 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:09) 7-J.Gillan punts 55 yards to LA 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-20-T.Thomas.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (10:30) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to CLE 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 80-J.Landry.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (9:10) 7-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to LA 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 62%

    (4:10) 4-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (11:44) 4-A.Seibert 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 37%

    (9:35) 6-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to CLE 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-83-J.Reynolds.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:52) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to LA 48, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-J.Natson to CLE 48 for 4 yards (25-D.Hilliard). PENALTY on LA-31-D.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 48.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 74%

    (4:13) 4-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 14 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 45%

    (2:09) 7-J.Gillan punts 29 yards to LA 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (:04) 4-A.Seibert 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 25%

    (2:05) 7-J.Gillan punts 21 yards to LA 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 48%

    (9:19) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb right tackle to LA 38 for 2 yards (32-E.Weddle).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 90%

    (6:40) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 18 at the 98 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:32) 7-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to LA 47, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-J.Natson to LA 47 for no gain (20-T.Thomas).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 18-D.Ratley INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at LA -3. Touchback.